Methodology · no black box
Every call is math you can audit. Here is all of it.
Alpha Engine scores 20,000+ Pokémon cards on live marketplace data and resolves each one to a six-point call. This page documents the exact rules and thresholds the engine runs — the same numbers you can verify on any card's diagnostics panel.
1 · The data pipeline
Prices come from two independent marketplaces — TCGplayer (US) and Cardmarket (EU) — via the PokémonTCG.io API, refreshed daily. Each refresh appends a timestamped price snapshot per card, building the history the signal math runs on. Every price tracks the card's headline printing (the standard version quoted on TCGplayer), so cross-market comparisons always describe the same physical product.
2 · The momentum math
3-day Rate of Change
How fast the price moved over the last 3 days, as a percentage. Breakout trigger: +15%. Watch trigger: +5%. Decline trigger: −10%.
3-day vs 14-day averages
The short average must clear the 14-day baseline by +5% to confirm a crossover — velocity without trend support is WATCHING, not a buy.
The floor-gap gate
If the market price sits more than 70% above the cheapest active listing, the print is too thin to trust — the call is capped at ACCUMULATE no matter how strong the momentum.
3 · Cross-market confirmation
A breakout that only one market can see is a rumor. A full PURCHASE requires the Cardmarket (EU) 7-day average to run more than +3% above its 30-day baseline at the same time as the US breakout — two independent order books agreeing. When they disagree, the call is capped at ACCUMULATE and the diagnostics say exactly why.
4 · The six-point scale
3-day ROC > +15% AND the 3-day average sits > +5% over the 14-day baseline AND the price is liquid AND — when EU data exists — Cardmarket's 7-day average runs > +3% over its 30-day baseline. Both markets agree; the thesis is confirmed.
Real momentum from one side only: a breakout the EU market hasn't confirmed, a breakout on a thin price, or momentum > +5% with trend support. Scale in; don't full-send.
Upward movement (> +5% ROC) without trend support, or momentum that conflicts with a falling EU market. Eyes, not money.
3-day ROC below −10%, or a falling EU market when our own history is thin. Not a dip to buy until the slide stabilizes.
Enough data to judge, no actionable edge on either side. Most of the market, most of the time — and we say so.
Not enough price history to compute the baselines. We show the honest state instead of guessing.
5 · Fair value & margin of safety
Momentum answers is it moving? — valuation answers is it worth it? Cards have no earnings or cash flows, so stock ratios like P/E don't apply. What does apply is the robust half of the value playbook: fair value is built from real anchors — the card's own trailing average and the TCGplayer listing mid (with outlier listings capped) — then tilted by the EU trend (clamped to ±10%) so a pumping card is never flagged cheap and a falling knife is never flagged a bargain. Margin of safety = (fair value − price) / fair value. Beyond ±12% the card reads UNDERVALUED or OVERVALUED, each with a confidence grade based on how much independent data backs the estimate.
6 · The honesty rules
Real data or nothing
Every number is sourced from live TCGplayer (US) and Cardmarket (EU) marketplace data. No estimates, no placeholders — when the data is insufficient, the card says GATHERING.
Every call shows its work
Open any card and you'll find the exact ROC, both moving averages, the cross-market check, and a plain-English justification. If you can't audit it, we don't ship it.
Prices track the headline printing
The price you see is the standard printing quoted on TCGplayer — never a reverse holo or premium variant standing in for the card. US and EU data always describe the same physical printing.
Outliers can't vote
Marketplace 'high' listings are routinely joke prices, so liquidity is measured as the market's distance above the cheapest listing, and fair-value anchors cap outlier listings before they count.
Don't take the methodology's word for it.
Open any card in the terminal and audit these exact numbers on its diagnostics panel — free account, no credit card.
Open the terminal — free